Manufacturing PMI

PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) surveys manufacturing purchasing managers on whether business conditions (new orders, output, employment, supplier deliveries) are improving or worsening. It's released well before official GDP data for the same period, which is exactly why it's so closely watched -- it's a genuine leading indicator, not a lagging confirmation.

A reading above 50 signals expansion, below 50 signals contraction -- the distance from 50 matters more than the exact number. A move from 48 to 52 (contraction to expansion) is a much bigger deal than a move from 55 to 57 (still solidly expanding either way), since the first crosses the line that actually changes the read on the economy's direction.

If manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.5 (still contracting) and comes in at 50.8, that crossing from contraction into expansion territory is a meaningfully bullish surprise for the currency -- more so than the roughly 1.3-point beat would suggest on its own, precisely because it changes which side of the expansion/contraction line the economy is read as being on.